How Scenario Planning Can Improve Decisions in Fragile Contexts
ADB DevAsia · 2026
Scenario planning helps development teams test assumptions, explore plausible futures, and make more deliberate choices when operating conditions are uncertain.
Development Asia · Asian Development Bank
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Why the Future Requires Better Questions, Not Better Predictions
Rappler · 2026
In uncertain environments, the quality of strategic thinking depends less on producing better forecasts and more on asking better questions about what could change, what assumptions may fail, and what different futures would mean for decisions today.
Published in Rappler.
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Leveraging the Power of Foresight
Philippine Daily Inquirer · 2026
Strategic foresight can help leaders move beyond prediction and engage more deliberately with uncertainty, expanding the range of possibilities considered before decisions are made.
Published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer.
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Rethinking Fragility through
Strategic Foresight
ODI Global Expert · 2025
Dominik Balthasar (2024): “Rethinking Fragility through Strategic Foresight.” ODI Global Expert comment.
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Imagination, Not Elimination:
From Decision Trees to Strategic Foresight
in Contexts of Uncertainty
SparkChange Think Piece · 2025
While decision trees and case-based elimination excel in stable, risk-based environments, they become dangerously limiting under true uncertainty, making strategic foresight – grounded in imagination, plural futures, and assumption-challenging – a necessary complement for navigating unprecedented disruption.
Read ArticleWhat is SparkChange?
SparkChange is a strategic foresight and advisory firm that supports organizations navigating uncertainty, complexity, and long-term change. We combine futures thinking, strategic analysis, and collaborative approaches to help partners make better decisions and build more adaptive strategies.
What Do You Mean by “Strategic Foresight”?
Strategic foresight is a disciplined way of exploring multiple plausible futures to inform decisions in the present. Rather than trying to predict what will happen, it helps organizations challenge assumptions, anticipate change, explore alternative possibilities, and make more robust choices under uncertainty.
How Is SparkChange Different from Traditional Consulting Firms?
We do not begin with a predefined answer or a one-size-fits-all methodology. Our work combines strategic foresight, analysis, facilitation, and co-creation to help organizations examine uncertainty, test assumptions, and develop strategies that are grounded in context and able to adapt as conditions change.
Who Do You Typically Work With?
We work with public institutions, development organizations, foundations, non-profits, mission-driven organizations, and leadership teams facing complex strategic questions, systemic challenges, or significant transitions.
Do You Only Work on Long-Term Futures?
No. While foresight often explores longer-term change, its purpose is to improve decisions today. We connect possible futures to present choices, helping organizations understand what different developments could mean for priorities, investments, capabilities, and action in the near term.
How Do You Work with Clients?
We work collaboratively rather than delivering answers from the outside. Each engagement is shaped around the client’s context, questions, and decisions, combining research, strategic foresight, facilitated dialogue, and co-creation as appropriate.
How Involved Do Clients Need to Be?
Our work is most valuable when clients are actively engaged. Strategic foresight depends on dialogue, diverse perspectives, and shared sensemaking. We therefore design engagements so that internal knowledge and external insight can inform one another and the resulting strategy is understood and owned by those who will use it.
What Kinds of Outputs Can We Expect from an Engagement?
Outputs depend on the strategic question and may include scenarios, strategic insights, uncertainty and trend analyses, decision frameworks, strategy options, workshop processes, foresight briefs, or practical tools that support ongoing learning and decision-making.
Do You Offer Fixed Methodologies or Proprietary Models?
We draw on established approaches in strategic foresight, scenario planning, strategy, systems thinking, and facilitation, but we do not apply them mechanically. Methods are selected and adapted to the decision context, the uncertainties involved, and what the organization needs to accomplish.
Can Strategic Foresight Be Applied to Policy and Governance?
Yes. Strategic foresight is particularly valuable in policy and governance contexts, where decisions often have long-term and systemic consequences and where political, economic, technological, social, and environmental conditions can change in unexpected ways.
How Long Do Engagements Usually Last?
Engagements can range from a focused strategic conversation or workshop to a multi-stage foresight and strategy process lasting several months. The appropriate format depends on the question, the depth of exploration required, and how closely the work needs to connect with existing strategy and decision processes.
How Do We Know If SparkChange Is the Right Partner for Us?
SparkChange is likely to be a good fit if you are facing significant uncertainty, questioning established assumptions, considering different strategic directions, or trying to prepare for change that cannot be addressed through forecasting alone. We work best with organizations that value rigorous thinking, constructive challenge, and collaborative exploration.
Let’s Start a Conversation
Let’s explore uncertainty together and shape your organization’s next strategic move forward.