How Scenario Planning Can Improve Decisions in Fragile Contexts
ADB DevAsia · 2026
Scenario planning helps development teams test assumptions, explore plausible futures, and make more deliberate choices when operating conditions are uncertain.
Development Asia · Asian Development Bank
https://development.asia/insight/how-scenario-planning-can-improve-decisions-fragile-contexts
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Why the Future Requires Better Questions, Not Better Predictions
Rappler · 2026
In uncertain environments, the quality of strategic thinking depends less on producing better forecasts and more on asking better questions about what could change, what assumptions may fail, and what different futures would mean for decisions today.
Published in Rappler.
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Leveraging the Power of Foresight
Philippine Daily Inquirer · 2026
Strategic foresight can help leaders move beyond prediction and engage more deliberately with uncertainty, expanding the range of possibilities considered before decisions are made.
Published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer.
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Rethinking Fragility through
Strategic Foresight
SparkChange Think Piece · 2025
Dominik Balthasar (2024): “Rethinking Fragility through Strategic Foresight.” ODI Global Expert comment. Weblink
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Imagination, Not Elimination:
From Decision Trees to Strategic Foresight
in Contexts of Uncertainty
SparkChange Think Piece · 2025
While decision trees and case-based elimination excel in stable, risk-based environments, they become dangerously limiting under true uncertainty, making strategic foresight – grounded in imagination, plural futures, and assumption-challenging – a necessary complement for navigating unprecedented disruption.
Read MoreWhat is SparkChange?
SparkChange is a boutique strategic foresight and advisory firm that supports organizations navigating uncertainty, complexity, and long-term change. We combine futures thinking, strategic analysis, and collaborative approaches to help partners make better decisions and build more adaptive strategies.
What Do You Mean by “Strategic Foresight”?
Strategic foresight is a disciplined way of exploring multiple possible futures to inform decisions made today. Rather than predicting outcomes, it helps organizations anticipate change, test assumptions, and prepare for uncertainty.
How Is SparkChange Different from Traditional Consulting Firms?
We do not offer one-size-fits-all solutions or prescriptive roadmaps. Our work is grounded in collaboration, context sensitivity, and learning - supporting strategies that can evolve as conditions change.
Who Do You Typically Work With?
We work with public institutions, foundations, non-profits, and mission-driven organizations, as well as leadership teams seeking to address systemic challenges or long-term transitions.
Do You Only Work on Long-Term Futures?
While our perspective is long-term, our work is always connected to present-day decisions. Strategic foresight helps clarify near-term choices by understanding their longer-term implications.
How Do You Work with Clients?
TWe work collaboratively rather than delivering solutions from the outside. Each engagement is shaped around the client’s context, questions, and decisions, combining research, strategic foresight, facilitated dialogue, and co-creation as appropriate.
How Involved Do Clients Need to Be?
Our work is most effective when clients are actively engaged. Collaboration, dialogue, and shared sensemaking are central to how we work and to ensuring outcomes are meaningful and usable.
What Kinds of Outputs Can We Expect from an Engagement?
Outputs vary depending on the context and purpose of the work. They may include strategic insights, scenarios, frameworks, facilitation processes, or tools that support ongoing learning and decision-making.
Do You Offer Fixed Methodologies or Proprietary Models?
We draw from established foresight, systems, and design practices, but we do not apply them rigidly. Our approach is adaptive and principled, shaped by the specific challenges and questions at hand.
Can Strategic Foresight Be Applied to Policy and Governance?
Yes. Strategic foresight is particularly valuable in policy and governance contexts, where decisions have long-term and systemic consequences and where uncertainty is inherent.
How Long Do Engagements Usually Last?
Engagements range from short, focused inquiries to longer-term partnerships. The duration depends on the depth of exploration, level of collaboration, and degree of integration required.
How Do We Know If SparkChange Is the Right Partner for Us?
If you are navigating uncertainty, questioning existing assumptions, or seeking to build more adaptive and future-ready strategies - and value collaborative, reflective ways of working - there is likely a good fit.
Let’s Start a Conversation
Let’s explore uncertainty together and shape your organization’s next strategic move forward.