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Author Archives: dominik_sparkchange
How Scenario Planning Can Improve Decisions in Fragile Contexts
Scenario planning helps development teams test assumptions, explore plausible futures, and make more deliberate choices when operating conditions are uncertain. Development Asia · Asian Development...
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Why the Future Requires Better Questions, Not Better Predictions
In uncertain environments, the quality of strategic thinking depends less on producing better forecasts and more on asking better questions about what could change, what assumptions may fail, and what different futures would mean for decisions...
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Leveraging the Power of Foresight
Strategic foresight can help leaders move beyond prediction and engage more deliberately with uncertainty, expanding the range of possibilities considered before decisions are made. Published in the Philippine Daily...
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Rethinking Fragility through Strategic Foresight
Dominik Balthasar (2024): “Rethinking Fragility through Strategic Foresight.” ODI Global Expert comment....
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Imagination, Not Elimination: From Decision Trees to Strategic Foresight in Contexts...
While decision trees and case-based elimination excel in stable, risk-based environments, they become dangerously limiting under true uncertainty, making strategic foresight – grounded in imagination, plural futures, and assumption-challenging –...
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